A recent Gallup poll suggests Kamala Harris might be on track to lose the popular vote to Donald Trump.
Gallup’s party ID measure has been spot on for the last four elections, predicting the popular vote within one point.
“Most of Gallup’s indicators favor Republicans over Democrats,” said Gallup’s Senior Editor Jeffrey Jones, PhD.
In the poll, 48% of voters leaned Republican, while 45% leaned Democratic. Republicans also led by five points when asked who could best handle the nation’s top problem.
Forty-six percent backed Republicans on this issue, compared to 41% for Democrats.
Gallup noted these numbers have historically aligned with presidential outcomes. Republicans also held advantages in other key areas.
Jones added that just 22% of voters are satisfied with the current state of the country.
Low satisfaction levels have been linked to presidential losses in past elections, but in non-incumbent races, the correlation isn’t as strong.
Low economic confidence and Biden’s 39% approval also favor Republicans, Gallup said.
Fifty percent of respondents said Republicans would keep America prosperous, compared to 44% for Democrats.