Online prediction-market platform Kalshi has permanently banned former U.S. Rep. George Santos after concluding there was reasonable cause to believe he engaged in insider trading involving bets on whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.
The lifetime ban, which Kalshi says took effect Friday, prevents Santos from accessing the platform either directly or indirectly. The company also imposed a $71,356 financial penalty. A Kalshi spokesperson said the action was the first permanent ban in the company’s history.
Kalshi hits former U.S. Rep. George Santos with its first ever lifetime ban for betting against his own announced plans to attend President Trump’s State of the Union address. https://t.co/NBbXlgO5X4
— NBC News (@NBCNews) August 31, 2026
Kalshi said Santos was prohibited from trading on a market tied to his attendance because he could influence the outcome. According to the company, he made several sizable trades between Feb. 2 and Feb. 25, publicly suggested that he intended to attend the address, and then did not appear—generating a reported profit of $17,839.
Santos has disputed Kalshi’s action. In posts on X, he called the company “unserious,” characterized the sanction as “frivolous nonsense,” and thanked the platform for the lifetime ban from what he described as its gambling operation.
The company’s finding follows a separate Commodity Futures Trading Commission enforcement matter. In July, Santos agreed to pay $35,000 to resolve federal allegations that he manipulated the State of the Union market. Under that settlement, he agreed to surrender trading profits, pay a civil penalty and accept a three-year trading ban; he did not admit wrongdoing.
Kalshi’s decision adds a company-imposed lifetime restriction to the federal settlement’s temporary platform ban. The company said Santos was the only person among its latest enforcement cases who did not cooperate with its internal investigation.
Other Candidates Sanctioned
Kalshi also announced temporary enforcement actions against candidates who placed trades related to their own electoral prospects.
| Person | Political status | Kalshi action |
|---|---|---|
| Laurie Buckhout | Republican candidate for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District | $2,589 fine and three-year trading ban |
| Stephen Cloobeck | Former California gubernatorial candidate | Three-year trading ban |
| Ben Midgley | Former Republican candidate for Maine governor | Three-year trading ban |
Why It Matters
Prediction markets allow people to buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes, such as election results, policy decisions or whether an individual will attend an event. The controversy arises when a trader has control over—or material nonpublic knowledge about—the event being traded.
In Santos’ case, Kalshi said his expected attendance at the State of the Union was precisely the kind of outcome on which he had an informational and practical advantage. The case is a test of whether prediction-market operators can police conflicts of interest as political-event contracts gain a broader audience.