Traders are betting that the ongoing federal government shutdown could stretch well into November, with many expecting it to last around six weeks as Washington remains deadlocked.
On prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, traders are wagering that partisan gridlock won’t break anytime soon. While these markets aren’t official forecasts, they often reflect real-time sentiment among politically savvy investors.
Kalshi’s data shows traders anticipate the shutdown will continue for roughly 44 days. The odds suggest a 44% chance it lasts until at least Nov. 15, and about a one-in-three chance it drags beyond Nov. 20. More than $12.7 million has already been traded on the outcome.
Polymarket traders have similar expectations. The largest share — about 44% — predict the government will reopen sometime after Nov. 16. Over $147,000 has been wagered on that scenario so far.
The government officially shut down at 12:01 a.m. ET on Oct. 7, after Congress failed to pass a spending bill. It’s the 20th shutdown since 1976. The longest — 34 days — occurred between December 2018 and January 2019 amid a dispute over funding for President Donald Trump’s border wall.
This latest standoff shows no signs of ending soon. Senators have now failed ten times to reach an agreement, while the House has been adjourned since Sept. 19 and isn’t expected to return until the shutdown is resolved.