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Analysis Claims GOP Votes Fell In All 67 Pennsylvania Counties

David

Pennsylvania’s Numbers Draw Fresh Scrutiny

Pennsylvania’s current 2026 results have placed a disputed voting pattern back in the spotlight. The Truth Is Freedom account says Republican candidates repeatedly received about 85% of an earlier Republican benchmark, while the remaining 15% effectively helped Democrats. The account calls this the “15% band,” the “0.85 formula,” or the “15% diversion.” Its analysis says the pattern appeared in all 67 Pennsylvania counties. That is a serious statistical claim, but it is still a claim based on unofficial returns, not a certified finding of wrongdoing. Election math can raise an eyebrow. It cannot conduct an audit by itself.

The 85.5 Percent Comparison

The statewide comparison is straightforward. Republican Stacy Garrity has 1,913,406 votes in the current 2026 count. Republican Doug Mastriano received 2,238,477 votes in Pennsylvania’s certified 2022 governor’s race. Dividing Garrity’s total by Mastriano’s produces approximately 0.855, or 85.5%. Democrat Josh Shapiro’s raw total moved far less, from 3,031,137 votes in 2022 to 3,035,249 in the current count, a difference of 4,112 votes. The Republican total fell by more than 325,000. That contrast is plainly worth examining, although different nominees, races, and turnout levels can change raw vote totals between elections.

All 67 Counties Enter the Debate

The county-by-county analysis says every Pennsylvania county reported fewer Republican votes than in the 2022 governor’s race. The reported county ratios mostly ranged from roughly 77% to 92% of the earlier Republican vote, with the statewide result centered at 85.5%. No county reportedly moved in the opposite direction. That uniform pattern is the central reason supporters of the theory are demanding more complete data and a transparent explanation. The current totals remain unofficial while Pennsylvania completes its canvass, audits, and certification. Provisional, military, overseas, and remaining mail ballots may still change the numbers.

The House Math Raises the Stakes

Truth Is Freedom argues that restoring the alleged 15% Republican decline would reverse all four Pennsylvania House flips. Under that hypothetical calculation, the state’s delegation would return to a 10 Republican to 7 Democrat split, the same division voters produced in 2024. That is not the current certified result. Fox News’ displayed Pennsylvania count shows Garrity at 1,913,406, Shapiro at 3,035,249, and Libertarian Ken Krawchuk at 64,914, with 99% reporting. Shapiro’s lead over Garrity exceeds 1.1 million votes, and the remaining unreported share is not expected to change the statewide winner. The congressional claim depends on accepting the disputed formula, which is why the underlying county returns matter.

Certification Still Matters

Pennsylvania’s official 2022 election record lists Mastriano with 2,238,477 votes and Shapiro with 3,031,137. It also records votes for minor-party candidates and write-ins. In that race, Shapiro won 56.5% and Mastriano received 41.7%. The current 2026 count places Shapiro near 60.5%, Garrity near 38.2%, and Krawchuk near 1.3%. Those figures show why cross-election comparisons require care. The 85.5% result may deserve a close review, but it does not by itself prove what caused the difference. Voters need complete data, clear methods, and an answer that is more substantial than being told not to look too closely.

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