Paxton Moves in Front, Barely
Quantus Insights found Republican Ken Paxton at 47.2% and Democrat James Talarico at 46.7% among likely voters in a new Texas Senate survey. Libertarian Ted Brown received 2.2%, while 3.9% remained undecided. Paxton’s half-point lead falls inside the poll’s margin of error, so the pollster described the race as effectively tied. The survey included 854 respondents, with a likely-voter ballot base of 839, and was conducted from October 9 through October 11. At the close of fieldwork, 23 days remained until Election Day. The result still matters because it breaks from a recent run of polls that generally placed Talarico ahead. Polling does not hand out trophies for leads smaller than a rounding error, but it can change the campaign conversation.
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS TEXAS SENATE POLL | October 13, 2026
Our latest survey finds Ken Paxton and James Talarico essentially tied in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, with 23 days remaining until Election Day at the close of fieldwork.
📊 U.S. Senate Ballot
🔴 Ken Paxton (R): 47.2%
🔵… pic.twitter.com/J89zLKaNsk— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 13, 2026
What the Crosstabs Say
Paxton’s strongest numbers came from older, rural, and white voters. He led voters 65 and older by 17 points, carried rural voters 64% to 30%, and led white voters 59% to 36%. He also held a five-point advantage in the suburbs. Talarico led among independents, younger voters, women, Black voters, Hispanic voters, and urban Texans. The partisan split was even sharper: Paxton received 87% of Republican voters, while Talarico took 7% of GOP voters. That gives both campaigns a clear path, but neither has room for complacency. A half-point lead is a map of the battlefield, not a victory lap.
The Average Still Favors Talarico
RealClearPolling’s current average still shows Talarico ahead, 48.1% to 45.1%. That is a real advantage, but not one that places the race beyond an ordinary polling miss or a late turnout shift. The average includes nine surveys conducted between September 18 and October 8, and none showed Paxton leading. ReconMR/Siena gave Talarico a four-point edge, Trafalgar put him ahead by three, and YouGov showed a six-point advantage. Rasmussen had Talarico up one, Fox News had him ahead by two, and UMass Lowell found a tie. Different sample sizes, field periods, and likely-voter screens explain part of the spread. The Quantus result is therefore a genuine break from the recent pattern, even if it is not proof that the race has fully turned.
Paxton Presses the Border Contrast
Paxton is leaning hard into immigration and border security in the closing stretch. In a recent message, he accused Talarico of repeatedly voting against tougher enforcement measures and support for local law enforcement. The message specifically cited building the wall, adding detention centers, and helping local law enforcement, while claiming Talarico voted against those efforts. That is the Republican campaign’s argument, and the new numbers explain why it is being emphasized. Talarico has worked to present himself as a culturally familiar Texas moderate, but his voting record gives Paxton room to challenge that image on immigration, energy, and social issues. Paxton does not need a landslide. He needs hesitant Republicans to return home and Talarico to fall short of turning his coalition into a decisive advantage.
James Talarico is a total fraud.@KenPaxtonTX: "Any time he had a chance to vote to build the wall, to build more detention centers, to help local law enforcement...Anything that would have protected our border, that would have secured it, he voted against." pic.twitter.com/0xlv8QyCka
— Republicans (@Republicans) October 13, 2026
As Texas Attorney General, @KenPaxtonTX has taken on Big Tech, Big Pharma, the far left, Joe Biden, and kept Texans safe.
VOTE FOR KEN PAXTON! pic.twitter.com/i1wq0whrC4
— Republicans (@Republicans) October 13, 2026
WE'D LOVE TO HEAR YOUR THOUGHTS! PLEASE COMMENT BELOW.